As soon as Ousmane Dembele was awarded the 2025 Ballon d’Or, the speculation began about the 2026 iteration.
We bring you the early odds, with 2025 runner-up Kylian Mbappe up there with the boy who could be his nemesis for club and country. A couple of what we thought were left-field predictions are included.
Who are the favourites to win the 2026 Ballon d’Or?
9=) Raphinha (Barcelona/Brazil)
Has begun 2026 in phenomenal form for Barcelona and has taken over from Vinicius Jnr as the darling of Brazil.
9=) Vitinha (PSG/Portugal)
He was third last year and really must take heart from Rodri’s 2024 win that a defensive midfielder can win the big prize…if he wins the World Cup. We cannot believe we live in a world where Roberto Martinez could win the World Cup, and yet here we are…
7=) Federico Valverde (Real Madrid/Uruguay)
Trent Alexander-Arnold called him “the most underrated footballer on the planet”. That may be so but Uruguay winning the World Cup feels wildly optimistic right now.
7=) Vinicius Jnr (Real Madrid/Brazil)
After The Great Huff of 2024 came the 16th-place finish of 2025 and he could hardly complain as he had a decent but unspectacular season and Real Madrid emerged potless. The same could absolutely happen again.
6) Erling Haaland (Manchester City/Norway)
He didn’t win it when he scored a gazillion goals on the way to an actual Treble, so it seems unlikely that he will get the nod in a World Cup year when winning the World Cup with Norway would seem very unlikely.
5) Michael Olise (Bayern Munich/France)
We thought it was a left-field choice but the bookies have obviously done the maths and calculated that the mercurial Frenchman could be central to both Champions League and World Cup glory. He is a very, very special footballer.
4) Declan Rice (Arsenal/England)
That performance against Bayern Munich has woken up the rest of Europe to the player who could be the best midfielder in the world. But he probably needs England to win the World Cup and that feels very far away right now.
3) Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid/France)
He presumably thought that he would dominate the post-Messi/Ronaldo era, but he is yet to claim his first Ballon d’Or. And the chaos at Real Madrid means that he could be reliant on France winning the World Cup.
2) Harry Kane (Bayern Munich/England)
Can lay claim to being the most consistent goalscorer in world football over the last decade and yet he has never ranked higher than 10th in the Ballon d’Or. Does pure goalscoring butter no parsnips? Bayern probably need to win the Champions League and England the World Cup for this to happen. He’s the top scorer of 2026 so far.
1) Lamine Yamal (Barcelona/Spain)
“Lamine Yamal is the best player in the world by far. It’s not just because he’s my son, but because he’s the best player in the world.”
That might be so, Lamine Yamal’s dad, but that’s not exactly how this works. He needs to go and win more trophies in 2026, preferably including the World Cup. He’s off to a bloody good start though.
